Tau los ntawm Wisdom Finance
Huatai Securities tau tshaj tawm daim ntawv tshawb fawb tias txij li lub Cuaj Hli, cov saw hlau pulp thiab ntawv tau pom ntau cov cim zoo ntawm sab kev thov. Cov neeg tsim khoom ntawv tiav feem ntau tau sib dhos lawv cov nqi pib nrog kev txo cov khoom muag.
Feem ntau cov nqi ntawm cov ntawv thiab cov ntawv pulp nce siab, thiab qhov txiaj ntsig ntawm cov saw hlau kev lag luam tau zoo dua. Lawv ntseeg tias qhov no qhia tau tias kev lag luam tsis deb ntawm qhov sib npaug ntawm kev muab khoom thiab kev thov khoom piv rau lub caij siab tshaj plaws. Txawm li cas los xij, ntawm qhov tod tes, vim tias lub sijhawm tso tawm khoom siab tshaj plaws ntawm kev lag luam tseem tsis tau dhau mus, qhov kev hloov pauv ntawm kev muab khoom thiab kev thov khoom tseem yuav tseem ntxov dhau.
Thaum lub Cuaj Hlis, qee lub tuam txhab ua lag luam hauv kev lag luam tau tshaj tawm tias kev tsim kho qee qhov project qeeb qeeb, kev loj hlob ntawm cov khoom siv ntawm kev lag luam pulp thiab ntawv yuav sib txawv hauv xyoo 2024, thiab kev muab khoom tshiab ntawm qee hom yuav qeeb qeeb, uas pab txhawb kev lag luam rov qab sib npaug.
Lub thawv ntawv corrugated: cov khoom muag ntawm cov ntawv hauv lub Hoobkas poob qis, txhawb nqa kev nce nqi
Ua tsaug rau lub caij siv ntau tshaj plaws ntawm Mid-Autumn Festival thiab National Day thiab kev rov ua kom tiav cov khoom muag, kev xa khoom ntawm cov ntawv corrugated tau loj hlob zoo txij li lub Cuaj Hli. Kev khaws cia tau poob qis los ntawm 14.9 hnub thaum kawg ntawm lub Yim Hli mus rau qhov nruab nrab ntawm 6.8 hnub (txij li Lub Kaum Hli 18), qib qis hauv peb xyoos dhau los.
Kev kho dua tshiab ntawm tus nqi ntawv tau nrawm dua tom qab lub Cuaj Hli thiab tau rov qab los + 5.9% los ntawm nruab nrab lub Yim Hli. Kev loj hlob ntawm lub peev xwm corrugated boxboard yuav qeeb qeeb heev hauv xyoo 2024 piv rau xyoo 2023 vim tias cov tuam txhab ua lag luam qeeb qeeb qee qhov kev tsim kho. Lawv xav tias cov khoom muag qis dua los txhawb cov nqi corrugated board hauv lub caij siab tshaj plaws. Txawm li cas los xij, txij li lub Yim Hli, lub peev xwm tsim khoom tshiab tau nrawm dua, thiab lub hauv paus rau kev hloov pauv ntawm kev muab khoom thiab kev thov tseem tsis tau ruaj khov, 1H24 lossis tseem yuav tsum ntsib kev sim ua lag luam hnyav dua.
Rooj tsavxwm dawb: lub caij muaj kev ruaj khov ntawm kev muab khoom thiab kev thov khoom siab tshaj plaws, kev poob siab ntawm kev muab khoom yuav los txog
Txij li thaum lub Cuaj Hlis los,C1s Rooj Tswjhwm IvoryKev muab khoom thiab kev thov hauv kev ua lag luam tseem ruaj khov, txij li Lub Kaum Hli 18, cov khoom muag piv rau thaum kawg ntawm Lub Yim Hli -4.4%, tab sis tseem nyob rau theem siab hauv xyoo tas los no. Vim muaj kev nce nqi sai ntawm cov nqi pulp hauv tsev hauv ob lub lis piam dhau los, cov nqi cardboard dawb tau nce dua tom qab Hnub National. Yog tias kev siv tau ua tiav, cov nqi cardboard dawb tam sim no yuav rov qab los 12.7% piv rau nruab nrab Lub Xya Hli. Nrog rau kev ua tiav ntawm kev teeb tsa loj-lojDaim Npav Kos Duab Dawb C2stej yaam num hauv Jiangsu, qhov kev poob siab tom ntej no tab tom los txog, cov nqi ntawv dawb ntxiv lub sijhawm kho yuav tsis muaj ntau.
Daim ntawv kab lis kev cai: kev rov zoo ntawm tus nqi txij li Lub Xya Hli yog qhov tseem ceeb
Daim ntawv kab lis kev cai yog daim ntawv ua tiav sai tshaj plaws nrog rau kev rov qab los ntawm tus nqi sai tshaj plaws txij li xyoo 2023, offsetdaim ntawvthiabdaim ntawv kos duabcov nqi rov qab los 13.6% thiab 9.1%, feem, piv rau nruab nrab Lub Xya Hli. Lub peev xwm tsim khoom tshiab raudaim ntawv kab lis kev caixav tias yuav rov qab mus rau qhov qub hauv xyoo 2024, tab sis xyoo 2023 tseem nyob rau lub sijhawm siab tshaj plaws ntawm kev tso tawm peev xwm. Lawv xav tias tseem yuav muaj 1.07 lab tons / xyoo ntawm lub peev xwm yuav raug muab tso rau hauv kev tsim khoom thaum kawg ntawm lub xyoo, thiab kev sib tw ua lag luam loj dua tseem yuav los txog rau hauv 1H24.
Pulp: Lub caij siab tshaj plaws ua rau tus nqi pulp rov qab zoo li qub, tab sis kev nruj ntawm kev ua lag luam tau yooj yim dua
Nrog rau kev txhim kho ntawm lub caij nyoog siab tshaj plaws, txhua yam ntawv tiav lawm tau txaus siab rau qhov kev poob qis ntawm cov khoom muag thiab kev pib ua haujlwm nce ntxiv hauv lub Cuaj Hli, kev thov pulp hauv tsev kuj tau txais txiaj ntsig los ntawm qhov no, thaum kawg ntawm lub hlis cov khoom pulp hauv Suav teb cov chaw nres nkoj tseem ceeb tau poob 13% piv rau thaum kawg ntawm lub Yim Hli, qhov poob loj tshaj plaws hauv ib hlis xyoo no. Cov nplooj dav dav hauv tsev thiab cov ntoo coniferous nce ntxiv txij li thaum kawg ntawm lub Cuaj Hli, feem, tau nce sai sai 14.5% thiab 9.4%, South America cov chaw tsim pulp loj kuj tau tsa tus nqi ntawm pulp rau Suav teb thaum lub Kaum Ib Hlis los ntawm 7-8%).
Txawm li cas los xij, tom qab Hnub National, qhov kev nruj ntawm kev ua lag luam hauv tsev tau txo qis vim tias qhov kev thov hauv qab tau qeeb ntawm cov npoo thiab cov neeg lag luam xa khoom pulp kuj tau nce qib kev xa khoom. Lawv xav tias xyoo 2023-2024 yuav yog lub sijhawm siab tshaj plaws ntawm kev tso tawm cov peev xwm tshuaj pulp, thiab nrog rau feem ntau ntawm cov khoom lag luam pulp tshiab los ntawm cov cheeb tsam tsim khoom pheej yig, kev rov ua kom sib npaug ntawm kev muab pulp thiab kev thov kuj tseem yuav tsis tiav.
Lub sijhawm tshaj tawm: Kaum Ib Hlis-04-2023